UAE and India Strengthen Defence and Trade Ties with Key LNG Deal

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and India have formally agreed to deepen their defence and trade relations. This includes a $3bn deal for India to purchase liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the UAE, positioning India as Abu Dhabi’s largest customer for LNG.

The agreement, concluded during a three-hour visit by UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to India, also encompasses cooperation on nuclear energy. This includes the development and deployment of “large nuclear reactors” and joint initiatives on nuclear safety. Both nations have set a target to double their bilateral trade to $200bn by 2032.

During the visit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Al Nahyan reportedly discussed various regional situations, including those in Yemen, Gaza, and the protests in Iran.

Regional Strategic Alignments

This strengthening of ties between the UAE and India occurs amidst broader regional geopolitical shifts. Turkey is reportedly lobbying to join an existing defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, a potential development that could establish a new military bloc in the Middle East as tensions persist in the Gulf and Iran.

The defence agreement between Islamabad and Riyadh, signed in September, commits both nations to consider an attack on one as aggression against both. This pact followed an Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha.

Pakistan has subsequently sought to leverage its strategic alignments and defence capabilities, particularly concerning its domestically assembled JF-17 Thunder fighter jet, to expand defence exports. Recent transactions include a deal exceeding $4bn to supply military equipment, including warplanes jointly built with China, to General Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya. Additionally, Pakistan is reportedly nearing a $1.5bn agreement to provide weapons and jets to Sudan, with Saudi Arabia identified as a potential broker. Negotiations are also underway between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to convert approximately $2bn in Saudi loans into a deal for JF-17 fighter jets.

The enhanced cooperation between the UAE and India also takes place amidst a reported divergence in regional policy between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Once close allies, their differences have become evident in conflicts such as those in Yemen and Sudan, where they reportedly support opposing factions.

Strategic Interpretations and Official Statements

In India, certain right-wing media outlets, including Network18, which is aligned with the Modi government, have characterised the UAE-India defence partnership as “a blow to Pakistan” and “a clear message to Islamic Nato,” interpreting it as “India’s counter through strategic depth” to Pakistan’s expanding defence outreach.

The joint statement released by India and the UAE condemned “terrorism in all its forms, including cross-border terrorism.” India has previously used the term “cross-border terrorism” in reference to alleged activities from Pakistan in Kashmir. The statement also highlighted the ongoing momentum from regular exchanges between security chiefs and joint military exercises.

Addressing inquiries regarding the potential for the India-UAE strategic defence partnership to involve India in future Gulf conflicts, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that the initiative aims to “work on concluding a framework agreement for Strategic Defence Partnership.” He described it as a “natural evolution from the already considerable defence cooperation between the two countries and not necessarily a response to any specific event that may have taken place in the region, or of any intent to get involved in a hypothetical future scenario in the region.”