Recent developments in Myanmar’s Rakhine State reveal a landscape reshaped by the Arakan Army’s growing influence, the fall of central military control, and the ongoing displacement and persecution of the Rohingya people. Adding to this volatile mix is Pakistan’s active support for Rakhine mujahideen, with evidence pointing to ties between the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terror group. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has been implicated in training and radicalizing Rohingyas, with senior Pakistani military officials frequently visiting key divisions in Bangladesh, such as the Ramu and Rangpur cantonments.

Under the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus in Bangladesh, the presence of the Pakistan Army and ISI appears to offer strategic advantages to the Bangladesh Army. The ISI has played a role in uniting Rohingya armed factions, including the recent formation of the ‘Four Brothers Alliance,’ which brings together groups like ARSA, the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), and others, ending previous conflicts among them. RSO and ARSA have emerged as dominant forces within refugee camps.

Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Army is training Rohingya cadres to combat the Arakan Army in collaboration with Myanmar’s ruling junta, with training centers identified in Mymensingh, Cox’s Bazar, and Bagerhat. Pakistan is expected to join these efforts, providing additional training and weapons, particularly through ISI operations in areas like Naikhongchhari and Brahmanbaria. These developments, coupled with strong anti-India sentiments, pose significant security threats to the region.

Rohingya armed groups have launched attacks against the Arakan Army in Rakhine, while the United League of Arakan (ULA) has imposed conscription and travel bans, raising fears of further bloodshed and refugee flows into Bangladesh. The Arakan Army, now controlling nearly 80% of Rakhine State, continues to spread anti-Rohingya rhetoric and carry out violence, bolstered by support from at least 20 insurgent groups.

Plans for a UN-supported Rakhine Humanitarian Corridor have faced resistance in Bangladesh, with discussions now focused on alternative aid delivery methods. The U.S. supports the corridor as a counter to Chinese influence, but the proposal remains contentious. Bangladesh is urging the Arakan Army to respect Rohingya rights, especially after large-scale displacements in Muangdaw. Pro-Pakistan groups like Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh have proposed an independent Rohingya-majority state, engaging with Chinese delegates on the idea.

Amid a worsening humanitarian crisis, the Yunus administration is pushing for Rohingya repatriation to Maungdaw, though the Arakan Army has rejected this due to lack of financial support. Bangladesh is seeking more international donors and stakeholders, highlighted by a recent conference in Cox’s Bazar and high-level diplomatic efforts, including visits to Qatar by Bangladesh’s National Security Advisor to discuss mediation strategies.