India is forging a distinct industrialisation pathway, leveraging electrotech and renewable energy to achieve development milestones faster and with significantly less fossil fuel dependency than China did at equivalent economic levels, according to recent analysis.

This approach positions India for substantial benefits, including enhanced energy sovereignty, reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels, and a burgeoning role in global electrotech manufacturing.

A Divergent Path from Traditional Industrialisation

Comparisons between India today and China at equivalent income levels (approximately $11,000 PPP in 2012 for China) reveal India’s unique trajectory. India is generating more solar electricity, consuming fewer fossil fuels, and electrifying its transport sector at a quicker pace than China did when it reached similar stages of development. This contrasts with common contemporary comparisons that often show China ahead in current new energy metrics, as China is at a more advanced stage of economic development.

The economic viability of this path is underscored by plummeting electrotech costs. As India’s per capita electricity usage crosses 1,500 kWh, solar-plus-storage solutions are now approximately half the cost of new coal plants. This is a stark difference from 2004, when China reached a similar electricity consumption level, and coal generation was ten times cheaper than nascent solar photovoltaics, leading to significant coal reliance in China’s subsequent growth.

Similarly, in transport, electric vehicles (EVs) in India are already proving more economical than internal combustion engines. India’s road oil demand per capita, at 96 litres, is unlikely to reach the 150 litres per capita China recorded in 2011, when battery costs were ten times higher and the EV industry was nascent.

Accelerated Renewable Adoption and Electrification

India is demonstrating significant success across two core aspects of the energy revolution: the integration of renewables with battery storage for electricity supply, and the comprehensive electrification of energy demand across transport, industry, and buildings.

Solar power in India reached 5% of total generation at approximately $9,000 GDP per capita, whereas China attained this level at around $23,000 GDP per capita. The share of renewable tenders in India that include battery storage has surged from about 12% in 2021 to 50% in 2024. Consequently, coal power growth is decelerating in India, with projections indicating a potential year-on-year fall in coal-fired generation in 2025. Forecasts suggest India’s coal demand may plateau or remain at today’s levels through to 2030, likely reaching $20,000 GDP per capita without its coal generation ever exceeding China’s levels at $5,000.

Regarding overall energy consumption, India has achieved 20% electricity share of final energy with significantly lower coal consumption—approximately 4 gigajoules (GJ) of coal per capita, compared to China’s 24 GJ at the same threshold of development. Furthermore, India’s road transport oil demand per capita is notably lower than China’s at equivalent stages, attributed to lighter vehicles and the rapid adoption of EVs. Electric cars surpassed 5% of sales in mid-2025, with oil demand per capita 60% lower than when China reached this milestone. India also leads globally in electric three-wheeler sales, approaching 60%, and saw 1.25 million electric two-wheelers sold in 2024, four times the 2020 figure.

Manufacturing and Strategic Advantages

India’s development model is structurally less energy-intensive, generating one-third more economic output per unit of energy than China does today. Its economy is more services-led, with lower demand for heavy industrial materials like cement and steel, contrasting with China’s construction-driven growth.

The global shift from fossil fuels to electrotech presents manufacturing opportunities, particularly favouring Asia and India. India’s electronics industry has grown nearly sixfold, from $22 billion in FY2015 to approximately $130 billion in FY2025, with domestic mobile phone production increasing from 2 million units in 2014 to 300 million a decade later. This expertise is spilling over into electrotech components, with solar module production reaching 120 GW—a twelvefold increase—and solar cell manufacturing expanding to 18 GW. Government incentives are further stimulating domestic battery and electrolyser industries, positioning India to capture a growing share of the global electrotech market, aided by geopolitical shifts leading to diversification of supply chains.

This “electrotech shortcut” offers several advantages for India:

India’s industrialisation on modern renewables, powered by electrification, demonstrates a powerful model for other emerging economies, illustrating that electrotech can drive industrial growth rather than merely follow it.