On November 8, the Chinese Consul General in Osaka reposted on his ‘X’ handle account a digital article in Japan’s leading newspaper Asahi Shimbun, with the headline: “Takaichi Says Taiwan Contingency May Qualify as a ’Survival Crisis’, Permitting Military Action.” To it the Chinese diplomat also added a remark of his own: “If you go sticking that filthy neck where it doesn’t belong, it’s gonna get sliced right off. You ready for that?”

Chinese diplomats now-a-days are notorious for their most undiplomatic bullying and browbeating ways which in the more civilized world is known as ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy.” The crude threat of the Chinese diplomat, issued to none other than the Prime Minister of Japan, was, however, more an expression of the frustration after having met with a Japanese bulwark against Chinese aggression on Taiwan. It is another thing that the comment was deleted from the post some time later.

Beijing has been unnerved, to the extent of threatening a Prime Minister and a lady at that, by an assertion of Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi made in the Parliament in early November that a Chinese misadventure in Taiwan like a military blockade of the self-ruled island or use of force against it would invoke the principle of collective self-defence as such an aggressive Chinese move against Taiwan could escalate into a situation threatening the survival of Japan.

According to analysts, what Beijing is worried about is the prospect of collective action against aggressive Chinese moves. If Japan is threatened, its close allies like the US and Australia will intervene. In fact, the situation may be the other way round as well. The US is committed to extend military assistance to Taipei for the defence of the self-ruled island. In case of a Chinese blockade of the coasts of Taiwan, the US navy is likely to intervene and come to the aid of the island. In that case, Japan, too, will be constrained to intervene in the support of its ally the US.

The apprehensions of Tokyo are entirely justified. When China carried out a major military drill around Taiwan in response to the visit by then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the self-ruled island in 2022, ballistic missiles landed just south of Yonaguni islands, a Japanese territory. These islands are close to Taiwan, only about 110 km away. A Chinese naval blockade or the narrowing of the access of the US to the Philippine Sea could immediately impact Japan’s access to its forward bases and sea line of communications. This will risk the existence of Japan and justifiably calls for invocation of the principle of collective self-defence. Tokyo has publicly clarified that aggression against Taiwan is a core security concern of Japan.

Beijing has been further unnerved by the announcement of Defence Minister of Japan Shinjiro Koizumi that Tokyo is planning to install medium range surface-to-air missiles on the Yonaguni islands as part of a broader plan for military build-up on the southern island chain of Japan. Anti-ship missiles, air surveillance facilities and an ammunition depot have already been stationed by Japan in the Yonaguni group of islands. In the nearby and larger Okinawa island Japan and the US have major joint bases. In 2024, an electronic warfare unit was introduced in the Yonaguni islands to jam enemy communications and guidance systems.

As part of American military assistance to Japan, lately the US military held an exercise to bring supplies from Okinawa to Yonaguni to simulate the creation of a forward operating base that would be needed in any regional crisis like Taiwan.

To the consternation of China, lately, in the wake of the tension between Japan and China over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments, the US reaffirmed its strong support for Japan; declaring the “unshakable” commitment of Washington to the bilateral alliance.

“In our meeting today, I reaffirmed the United States’ unshakable support for the US – Japan alliance and our steadfast commitment to the defence of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands,” US Ambassador to Japan George Glass said on November 21 after a meeting with Foreign Minister of Japan Toshimitsu Motegi. Chinese moves were “very unhelpful and will undermine regional stability,” he said; describing as “classic case of economic coercion” China’s move to ban aquatic imports from Japan.

Countries facing the Chinese threat appear to be also keeping in view the possible withdrawal of the protective umbrella of the US from the Indo – Pacific and building bilateral and multilateral ties strong enough to challenge Beijing. Japan and Australia are natural allies in this, both being members of the Quadrilateral Alliance; dedicated to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The main security concern of Australia, too, is its growing neighbourhood rivalry with China. Last February, a live fire exercise held by a Chinese navy formation in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand had rattled both the countries; prompting passenger planes to change course mid-flight.

As a counter-measure, in August last Australia announced a $6.5 billion deal to buy advanced warships from Japan. The purchase of 11 of Japan’s stealthy state-of-the-art Mogami-class frigates that analysts say are equal to anything that China has put in the water will go a long way to make Australia a Pacific maritime power and Japan a major weapons exporter.

On December 7 last, the Defence Minister of Japan and the Defence Minister of Australia Richard Marles in Tokyo resolved to elevate the defence cooperation between Japan and Australia into ‘Special Strategic Partnership’ and enhance collective deterrence amid a deteriorating and increasingly complex regional security environment. The establishment of the Framework for Strategic Defence Coordination was also announced.

The crass comment of the Consul General of China in Osaka has given rise to the fear in diplomatic circles that Beijing is suffering from overconfidence that Taiwan is isolated and America and its allies would not fight should China launch an attack. Director General of the Indo-Pacific Program of German Marshall Fund of the US Bonnie Glaser has recently found her interlocutors in China exceptionally confident. Dennis Wilder of the Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University is worried that this may lead to greater aggression and miscalculation on the part of China. For, Japan is sure to intervene if its security is threatened and this will, in turn, involve the US too; as well as Australia. For China, hubris should not turn into nemesis.