Bangladesh appears to be on course for a highly contentious general election in February 2026, orchestrated by the interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus. The election, scheduled just before Ramadan, may exclude the country’s two major political parties—Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League and the Jatiyo Party—potentially opening the door for Islamist factions to gain influence. Together, these two parties have historically garnered support from nearly half of Bangladesh’s 120 million voters.

With their absence, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is expected to secure an easy victory in what critics are calling a “manufactured” election. However, this win could be fleeting. Jamaat-e-Islami, a group accused of war crimes during the 1971 Liberation War, is positioning itself to become the second-largest political force. The newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP), perceived as a proxy for Jamaat, may claim the third spot.

Both Jamaat and the NCP wield significant influence over the interim government. Dr. Yunus has openly favored NCP leaders, granting them outsized roles in policymaking, while Jamaat is leveraging the political vacuum to strengthen its grassroots network. Despite its organizational strength, Jamaat has never secured more than 5% of the national vote. With the Awami League sidelined, its share could surge past 20%.

Though Jamaat and the NCP may run separately to create the illusion of competition, they are reportedly collaborating to transform Bangladesh into an Islamic republic. Post-election, they might attempt to overthrow the BNP-led government and seize power directly.

Alarming signs of this shift are already evident. A Dhaka court recently overturned the results of a 2020 municipal election, declaring BNP leader Ishraque Hossain the winner—a decision the interim government has yet to enforce. Meanwhile, a known Islamist with alleged ties to the banned Hizb-ut Tahrir was swiftly appointed to head the Dhaka North City Corporation, as documented by the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

Critics argue that Dr. Yunus’s administration is eroding Bangladesh’s democratic foundations more severely than past military regimes. In May, the interim government banned the Awami League—the party that led Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation—from political and electoral participation. Historically, the Awami League has commanded loyalty from nearly 40% of voters, even in its worst electoral performances.

From 2009 to 2024, Sheikh Hasina’s government was instrumental in combating Islamist extremism, even removing Bangladesh from the FATF grey list. Ironically, her party now faces a ban for “anti-national activities” under the same administration that benefited from her policies.

The Jatiyo Party, traditionally holding about 8-9% of the vote, hasn’t been officially banned but has been excluded from political dialogues for nearly 10 months. Its offices and even the residence of party president G.M. Quader have been repeatedly attacked.

Over the past 10 months, the Yunus administration has released hundreds of convicted criminals and extremists while arresting thousands of Awami League activists, journalists, and civil society leaders—many on seemingly politically motivated charges. In April, Barrister Tureen Afroz, a former prosecutor at the International Crimes Tribunal, was arrested on dubious murder charges. Over 266 journalists are also facing criminal allegations.

Meanwhile, efforts to silence historical narratives are underway. An actor from the 2023 film Mujib: The Making of a Nation was arrested, and a Dhaka University professor critical of the Yunus government received a corruption notice for a 2018 incident—despite having previously blown the whistle on the same case.

The interim government’s actions suggest a deliberate dismantling of democracy to pave the way for Islamist rule. As Bangladesh approaches the 2026 election, the real battle isn’t between political parties but between an emerging theocracy and the democratic ideals that once defined the nation’s birth.