Pakistan has condemned recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi militia, warning that it could respond with military action. As the conflict in the Middle East threatens to widen, Islamabad’s pledge underscores a complex diplomatic tightrope.

Last week, the Houthis launched missiles at southern Saudi Arabia and announced they would enforce a “maritime blockade” against the kingdom. In response, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry warned that any Houthi threats to Pakistan’s maritime interests in the Red Sea could be met with the “lawful use of force.”

Pakistan’s flagged vessels frequently utilize Saudi ports in the Red Sea, underpinned by strong trade and security ties between the two nations. In September 2025, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a mutual defense agreement. The pact includes a “collective security” clause, dictating that an attack on one nation is treated as an attack on both. Following the recent missile strikes, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its “unwavering commitment” to the agreement.

However, any military action against the Houthis threatens to entangle Islamabad in a highly complicated foreign policy predicament. Pakistan maintains ties with Iran and currently acts as a critical mediator between Washington and Tehran in efforts to end the broader Iran war.

Historically, Riyadh and Islamabad have shared deep strategic and military relations, with Pakistani advisers and generals aiding Saudi Arabia for decades. Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemen expert at the London-based think tank Chatham House, claimed that Pakistani troops are currently deployed in Yemen to assist the Saudis, “carrying out security and training-related duties alongside Saudi forces.” When contacted by DW, a Pakistani official categorically denied this claim.

Despite the denial, an escalation of Houthi strikes on commercial shipping and oil tankers in the Red Sea could prompt Saudi Arabia to formally request Pakistani assistance.

“Pakistan is one of Riyadh’s closest defense partners, and their mutual defense pact makes such a request plausible. Having also come under Iranian attack, Saudi Arabia may increasingly look to Islamabad for military assistance if it feels under growing security pressure,” Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council, told DW.

Complicating matters are Pakistan’s improving relations with Iran. Following a period of unprecedented friction in 2024 that saw cross-border missile strikes exchanged between Iran and Pakistan, the neighboring countries have rebuilt their diplomatic ties and boosted cooperation against militant groups operating along their shared border.

“Pakistan and Iran have a complicated relationship based on the calculation of tactical gains by either side. In any case, Pakistan has warned Iran several times that in case of conflict it will support Saudi Arabia,” Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani military analyst and senior fellow at King’s College London, told DW.

Intervening on Saudi Arabia’s behalf could jeopardize Pakistan’s mediation efforts in the US-Iran conflict. “Limited military support for Saudi Arabia would not necessarily rupture Pakistan’s ties with Iran. But at a time when Islamabad is trying to present itself as a neutral mediator, expanding arms support to Riyadh could deepen Tehran’s suspicions and undermine Pakistan’s diplomatic role,” said Kugelman.

If Riyadh requests help, military analysts predict Islamabad’s contribution would focus on safeguarding Saudi interests rather than participating in offensive strikes. “The preference would be for defensive engagement, as expanding operations in the Red Sea may prove too risky,” Siddiqa noted. This approach could entail intelligence sharing, maritime surveillance, air-defense cooperation, and securing critical Saudi infrastructure.

“Despite its deep military ties and mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan is unlikely to provide arms or troops. Islamabad is focused on preventing regional escalation and preserving its role as a mediator in the Iran conflict, making any military support for Riyadh politically risky and potentially damaging to its ties with Tehran,” Kugelman added.

For its part, Saudi Arabia has maintained considerable restraint since scaling back its massive military campaign in Yemen. However, continuous strikes on commercial vessels and oil infrastructure may force a change in strategy. “Continued Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels could prompt Riyadh to abandon its restraint and launch a military response,” Al-Muslimi stated.

Siddiqa expressed doubts regarding Saudi Arabia’s current capacity to wage a prolonged sub-conventional war against the Houthis. “While it may intensify air strikes, more bombardment alone is unlikely to achieve the objective of making the kingdom more secure,” she explained.

Ultimately, analysts agree that while Pakistan will likely advocate for freedom of navigation and maritime security, it will avoid direct strikes on Houthi targets amid the looming US-Iran conflict. Yet, escalating Red Sea tensions could make strict neutrality impossible as pressure from both Tehran and Riyadh mounts.

“The trajectory of the conflict with Iran will shape Saudi Arabia’s tolerance for Houthi attacks,” Kugelman concluded. “If the current pause between the US and Iran holds, Riyadh is likely to wait out the attacks rather than escalate. But Saudi Arabia will continue to view Pakistan as a key security partner because Houthi attacks are unlikely to stop, even if the Iran conflict ends,” he added.

(This report was originally edited by Wesley Rahn.)