The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) has announced that the nation’s real GDP is projected to grow between 4.8% and 5.3% this year. According to the MMA’s latest Development Update, this growth is primarily fueled by the continued expansion of the tourism, transport, and commerce sectors.

Economic performance has shown notable fluctuations in recent years, with a recorded growth of 3.5% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025. While the tourism sector is recovering from the impacts of global conflicts, the MMA report highlights shifting trends. Total bed nights have decreased by 13%, driven largely by a 21% decline in resort bed nights. Conversely, the guesthouse sector experienced a significant 32% increase. Furthermore, the average duration of stay for tourists rose from 6.9 to 7.1 days, although overall occupancy rates dropped from 60% to 49% due to increased bed capacity.

International financial institutions offer a more conservative outlook. Following an Article IV mission in June 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that real GDP growth could be as low as 1% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising global energy costs. Similarly, the World Bank projected a potential slowdown to 0.7%, citing flight disruptions and challenges in securing external financing. However, economic forecasts suggest a stabilization of growth at approximately 4% in the medium term, starting from 2027.